The Theory of Ten Victories and Ten Defeats

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A cough echoed from the seat of honor as Chancellor Cao drew out his pipe, lit it, and took a slow drag, exhaling a thin stream of smoke. As the haze drifted upward, his body seemed to relax ever so slightly.

“Yuan Shao of Hebei, that shameless traitor, has repeatedly provoked me. I am preparing to go to war against him. What are your thoughts, gentlemen?”

No sooner had Cao Cao finished speaking than the entire hall erupted into murmurs and debate.

Yuan Shao ruled over the four provinces of Ji, Qing, You, and Bing, and had spent six years cultivating his power in Hebei. He commanded over a million armored soldiers—the strongest and wealthiest warlord in all the land. In contrast, Cao Cao’s army had only been established in Xuchang for less than two years, with a mere 130,000 soldiers under his command. He lacked both manpower and provisions. Compared with the robust, well-established might of Yuan Shao, Cao Cao’s forces fell short by more than a little.

Even if his own strength were multiplied fivefold, Cao Cao would only be able to stand on even footing with Yuan Shao of Hebei. How could such a lopsided war be fought?

Many in the hall were already thinking that, should conflict truly erupt, it would be wise to prepare an escape in advance.

“Chancellor, this must not be!”

Among the civil officials, Xun Yu, Cheng Yu, Zhong Yao, and others all rose to remonstrate, pointing out that Yuan Shu in Yangzhou and Lü Bu in Xuzhou had not yet been subdued, that our army was short on supplies, and that now was not the time to break with Yuan Shao. They urged the Chancellor to have patience, to endure a little longer, and not to let anger dictate a call to arms.

“Hmph.”

Cao Cao snorted coldly, a flicker of disappointment flashing in his eyes. Suddenly, he noticed that Guo Jia had not risen to speak. “Fengxiao, why do you remain silent? Why do you not counsel me?”

Guo Jia stood leisurely, cupped his hands, and replied, “Chancellor, in my humble opinion, you far surpass Yuan Shao. You could defeat him at any time you choose. To wage war against Yuan Shao now is not a bad idea. Everything depends on your decision.”

“Oh? Fengxiao, do you truly believe I can defeat Yuan Shao and his million-strong army with only a little over a hundred thousand men?”

Cao Cao asked, his voice charged with excitement.

In truth, Cao Cao did not need his ministers to remind him that his foundation was not as solid as Yuan Shao’s. But Yuan Shao’s recent provocations had left him deeply wounded. What he needed now was support and comfort from his men, not discouragement.

Guo Jia’s words instantly revived his spirits.

“Chancellor, if I may, Emperor Gaozu’s force was no match for Xiang Yu’s, as you well know. Yet Gaozu triumphed by strategy, overcoming Xiang Yu despite his strength. So too with you and Yuan Shao: you possess ten advantages, where Yuan Shao has ten shortcomings. Though Yuan Shao is formidable, you are not merely capable of defeating him—you are destined to do so.”

Guo Jia spoke calmly and unhurriedly.

“I have ten advantages? What are they? Quickly, Fengxiao, tell me!”

Chancellor Cao’s spirits soared as he pressed for more.

Guo Jia smiled subtly. Glancing at the fan in Xun You’s hand, he took it, gently fanning himself as he explained:

“First, Yuan Shao obsesses over pomp and ceremony, burdened by endless rituals; you, Chancellor, conduct yourself with natural ease and sincerity—thus you surpass Yuan Shao in your dealings with others.

Second, Yuan Shao, though a subject, would be a rebel if he raised arms; you, Chancellor, uphold the Son of Heaven and unite the realm under his banner—thus you surpass Yuan Shao in righteousness.

Third, since the reigns of Emperors Huan and Ling, government decrees have grown lax. Yuan Shao attempts to remedy laxity with further leniency, resulting in lawlessness and orders going unheeded. You, Chancellor, correct laxity with strictness, ensuring all officials respect the law—thus you surpass Yuan Shao in governance.

Fourth, Yuan Shao is outwardly magnanimous but inwardly suspicious. He employs only his kin and mistrusts outsiders, while you, Chancellor, are consistent inside and out, trusting those you employ and judging only by talent, not kinship—thus you surpass Yuan Shao in discernment...”

The assembly listened, some nodding, some shaking their heads.

Cao Xin, however, wore a curious expression. Wasn’t this famous “Ten Victories, Ten Defeats” theory supposed to be put forth before the Battle of Guandu? Was this kind of inspirational rhetoric really effective?

“Hahaha!”

As he was quietly questioning Guo Jia’s motivational words, Cao Cao burst into hearty laughter, stepped down into the hall, and clasped Guo Jia’s hands with joy.

“Fengxiao, your words are splendid! Am I truly as virtuous as you say? You give me too much credit! Someone, bring Fengxiao two jars of fine wine!”

“Thank you, Chancellor!” Guo Jia shouted, his joy written all over his face, as if he had just tasted honey.

“Haha! Gentlemen, what do you think of Fengxiao’s ‘Ten Victories, Ten Defeats’?”

Cao Cao stood tall, his chest out, surveying the assembled ministers and generals.

“Guo, the Libationer, speaks with great wisdom!”

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“Well said, Libationer Guo!”

Seeing that the Chancellor himself endorsed the “Ten Victories, Ten Defeats” theory, the assembly hastened to voice their agreement.

“Chancellor, Guo Fengxiao’s words are excellent! If our army marches against Yuan Shao, victory is assured. I, your subordinate, am willing to lead five thousand men as the vanguard in the attack on Hebei!”

Cao Xin rose and declared.

“Chancellor, I too am willing to serve as vanguard, leading five thousand men to attack Yuan Shao in Hebei,” Cao Hong stood and announced loudly.

“Chancellor!”

Cao Ren, Xu Huang, Xiahou Yuan, and other generals also rose, expressing their willingness to serve as vanguard and share the Chancellor’s burdens.

“This...”

Cao Cao and his advisers looked speechlessly at the crowd of generals. Just now, everyone’s words were mere rhetoric—idle boasting. But these generals seemed to take it seriously! Could they truly win such a battle? They were all so reckless.

Cao Cao stroked his beard. “Fengxiao, if we fight Yuan Shao now, what are our chances?”

“Chancellor, Lü Bu is Yuan Shao’s claw and fang. If we attack Yuan Shao, Lü Bu will surely strike at our rear. It would be better to attack Lü Bu first, cutting off Yuan Shao’s talons.”

Guo Fengxiao’s meaning was simple: Lü Bu was Yuan Shao’s ally; to attack Lü Bu was, in effect, to attack Yuan Shao. What difference did it make? It was also a way for Cao Cao to save face—having just declared his intent to attack Yuan Shao, it would be embarrassing to back down immediately.

The assembly sighed inwardly—this drunkard certainly knew how to speak.

“Haha! Fengxiao is right. Another jar of fine wine for him!”

Cao Cao laughed.

“Thank you, Chancellor!” Guo Fengxiao was nearly dancing with joy. At this rate, would he ever lack for wine again? No more having to beg Cao Ziyu for a drink!

The civil officials breathed a sigh of relief. Attacking Lü Bu was a minor campaign, easily accomplished. Yuan Shao of Hebei was too powerful and too distant—a major campaign that would require overtime, spoiling even the New Year.

Cao Xin curled his lip. If there would be no war, why summon the troops—just for a game of “King’s Fire” to amuse the nobles?

“Ziyu!”

As the meeting drew to a close, Cao Cao called out to Cao Xin.

“Chancellor! What is it?”

Cao Xin asked.

“Ziyu, you are the Administrator of Nanyang. After the New Year, return to Nanyang and keep watch. Govern well, pacify the bandits, and do not easily provoke war with neighboring lords. Do not act rashly—the army’s provisions are scarce.”

Cao Cao’s words were grave and sincere.

“??”

Cao Xin was momentarily stunned. “Chancellor, are we not fighting Lü Bu next year?”

“Ahem. Ziyu, Lü Bu is a trapped beast now. Even without your help, I can finish him off. You just keep order in Nanyang—leave the rest to me.”

Cao Cao’s face darkened.

Xun Yu, Xun You, Guo Jia, and the others exchanged glances. They had thought the Chancellor had let go of Yuan Shao’s schemes, but it seemed he had not.

Cao Xin looked from Cao Cao to the assembled advisers. Could anyone tell him what was happening? Why was the Chancellor suddenly sending him back to Nanyang?

“Chancellor!”

Xun Yu stepped forward. “I have received word that Qiao Rui, Prefect of Lujiang, is an old acquaintance of Sun Wentai and greatly admires Sun Ce. He intends to form a marriage alliance with Sun Ce and transfer his allegiance to him. In addition, Liu Yao, Prefect of Kuaiji, is gravely ill and not long for this world. Once Liu Yao passes, Yangzhou will surely undergo great upheaval.”

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Sun Ce already controls Kuaiji, Danyang, Luling, and Wu counties, making him far more powerful than Yuan Shu. If Sun Ce absorbs Lujiang and Yuzhang as well, his power will only grow. Yet General Yuanrang does not get along with Prefect Yang Hong; together, they can only secure Huainan, and lack the strength to intervene in Lujiang and Yuzhang.

Cao Cao’s brows knit tightly as he looked helplessly at Cao Xin.

“Ziyu, you are General Who Pacifies the South. Affairs in Yangzhou are also your responsibility. Go to Yangzhou, keep watch, and ensure peace in the counties of Huainan and Lujiang. Leave other matters alone. Do not rashly provoke war with neighboring lords. Refrain from raising arms—our army’s provisions are scarce.”

The words were little different from before. Cao Xin frowned deeply. What was this all about? What was Cao Cao playing at?

“Ziyu? Ziyu? Insolent! I am speaking to you—why are you lost in thought?”

Cao Cao barked, displeased.

Cao Xin shook his head. “Chancellor, since returning from Huainan, you have more than once spoken of sending me as vanguard against Lü Bu. Yet today, one moment you want me in Nanyang, the next in Lujiang. This constant change has left me dizzy. Chancellor, I just want to ask: why?”

Cao Cao’s face darkened. How was he to answer this? Was he to admit he had been wounded by Yuan Shao’s machinations and wanted to prove his own military prowess, even if it put his brother in a difficult position?

“Chancellor, trust should be given to those you employ, and suspicion should not hinder their use. That is precisely where you surpass Yuan Shao,” Guo Jia murmured quietly.

The entire assembly turned to look at Guo Jia. So, the “Ten Victories, Ten Defeats” was not merely empty rhetoric—it was a subtle snare, used to restrain the Chancellor himself? What a brilliant move! From now on, whenever the Chancellor erred, this point could be used to advise him.

Even Xun Yu glanced at Guo Jia with newfound admiration.

Only Cao Cao and Cao Xin, the two brothers, frowned.

“Chancellor, do you suspect me of plotting rebellion?”

Cao Xin asked, incredulous.

“Nonsense!” Cao Cao rebuked. “When have I ever doubted you? It’s your sister-in-law who spoke to me. She says you’re always off fighting, soon to be twenty-two years old, and still without a single child. She wants me to lighten your workload so you can focus on giving her a nephew or niece. My intentions are nothing but good! Nothing but good! And you suspect me?”

Cao Cao clutched his chest, feigning great pain and grievance.

Cao Xin was a little embarrassed. So that was the reason. Clearly, the Chancellor truly cared about his younger brother.

“Chancellor, forgive me. I misunderstood.”

“I don’t want to hear your excuses! After the New Year, go immediately to Huainan, settle down, and focus on having children. Have several! If you don’t produce a legitimate heir, Cao Ziyu, you can forget about returning to the battlefield. That is my order, and it will not change.”

With a flourish of his sleeves and a triumphant smile, Cao Cao strode away, leaving the assembly dumbfounded.

The advisers watched the Chancellor’s departing figure with silent admiration. What an ingenious move! By using the matter of children to curb Cao Xin’s rise, he achieved his aim with a means both effective and affectionate. Truly brilliant—higher than Taibai Tower itself.

Moreover, Cao Ziyu had been married for over two years, yet his wife had not conceived, nor had any of his concubines. If it turned out Cao Ziyu was infertile—tsk.

The assembly turned their eyes to Cao Xin, their gazes growing increasingly odd, tinged with sympathy and pity.

“Why are you all looking at me like that?”

Cao Xin was unsettled by their stares.

“Ahem, it’s nothing. We wish you many sons, General Liu.”

“Haha, may General Liu soon be blessed with a son!”

“Cao Ziyu, may you have a son soon! Hahaha—”

The crowd offered mock congratulations with laughter and bows.

Cao Xin looked at them all, certain that something fishy was going on.

——